Warren Buffett“A public opinion poll is no substitute for thought.”
Adlin Sinclair“Success is a welcomed gift for the uninhibited mind.”
US: Manufacturing activity grew at a slower pace in Philadelphia
Fri, Jan 22 2010, 08:47 GMT
In January, the
dropped for the first time in six month. The headline index fell from an upwardly revised 22.5 to 15.2, while the consensus was looking for a smaller decline. Looking at the details, new orders (3.2 from 8.3), shipments (11.0 from 14.9) and average workweek (4.2 from 6.3) dropped, while number of employees (6.1 from 4.5), unfilled orders (3.6 from 1.7), delivery time (6.6 from 4.1) and inventories (-1.6 from -5.7) improved. Prices paid fell slightly from 36.6 to 33.2, but continued to reflect high prices for energy and other commodities. Prices received rose from 1.4 to 2.7. The forward-looking index, on the contrary, improved from 35.9 to 43.3. The decline is no cause of concern. The survey is volatile, the trend is still up and levels reached are in firm positive territory. However, for a more vigorous recovery, one should see the index moving higher.
In the week ended January 16,
rose by 36 000 from an upwardly revised 446 000 to 482 000, while the consensus was looking for a slight decline.
The labour department however added that the jump was due to an administrative accumulation from late December and early January holidays and did not reflect economic reasons. Continuing claims,
which are reported with an extra week lag, dropped from a revised 4 617 000 to 4 599 000, which was in line with the consensus estimate.
In December,
rose for the ninth consecutive month. Leading indicators rose by 1.1%, stronger than the expected 0.7% increase and the previous figure was upwardly adjusted from 0.9% to 1.0%. The breakdown shows that the improvement was broadly based with positive contributions from all sub indices excluding average workweek and consumer goods orders, which stayed flat.
In January, euro zone
extended its rebound and rose for the 11th consecutive month, to its highest level in almost two years. The first estimate showed that manufacturing PMI rose from 51.6 to 52.0, marginally above the consensus estimate of 51.9.
Euro zone services PMI,
on the contrary, dropped for the first time in seven months. In January, the headline index fell from 53.6 to 52.3 according to the first estimate, while a marginal increase was expected. The composite PMI index dropped from 54.2 to 53.6. At the start of the new year, both the services and manufacturing sector continued to grow, but the pace of expansion in the important services sector slowed, which indicates that the recovery is still fragile. Nevertheless, the details of the service survey, that isn’t compiled into the headline index like the manufacturing survey, painted a more positive picture that the “general activity” index.
UK,
of £23.6B in December, a record high for the month, but below analysts forecasts for a reading of £25.5B. Central government tax revenues fell just 0.4% Y/Y as receipts from value-added tax were up by 5.7% Y/Y, as VAT rates were cut in December 2008. Central government spending was up by 7.5% Y/Y. While public finances are still very weak, we see some slowing in the rate of deterioration.
slowed more than expected in December, from a downwardly revised 9.2% Y/Y to 6.4% Y/Y, while a figure if 8.9% Y/Y was expected. On a monthly basis, M4 slowed by 1.1% M/M.
In the three months to January, output (11 from 
in the UK rose stronger than expected, according to the
quarterly CBI Industrial Trends Survey.
Also new orders (1 from -12) and export orders (6 from -7) rose in the three months to January. Domestic orders showed another contraction, but the pace of decline slowed from -16 to -9. The outcome indicates that global demand improves, supported by the weak sterling, but domestic demand remains weak.