NEW YORK (Reuters) – Stock index futures pointed to a slightly higher open on Wednesday as investors remained cautiously optimistic about progress on plans to lessen the euro zone’s debt woes.

International auditors headed to Greece to scrutinize new austerity measures they must endorse for Athens to get the next tranche of aid.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel suggested that parts of a planned new 109-billion-euro ($148.6 billion) rescue for the debt-laden country could be reopened, depending on the outcome of the audit.

Recent efforts to solidify a euro zone rescue fund and alleviate the region’s sovereign debt crisis lifted stocks on Tuesday for a third consecutive session and came after four straight days of losses for the benchmark S&P 500.

“At least they are doing something and for the moment it has taken away the fear of a collapse for now,” said Frank Lesh, a futures analyst and broker at FuturePath Trading LLC in Chicago.

“It is certainly interesting that we had that nice rally yesterday and gave it all back late afternoon but it just shows how nervous the markets are and it is tough to commit. We will probably continue like this until there is a little more clarity and who knows when that comes.”

Market volatility could remain as traders react to European headlines.

Analysts also said equities would be supported by quarter-end “window dressing,” when portfolio managers drop underperforming stocks and buy outperformers.

S&P 500 futures rose 3.7 points and were above fair value, a formula that evaluates pricing by taking into account interest rates, dividends and time to expiration of the contract. Dow Jones industrial average futures gained 35 points, and Nasdaq 100 futures added 4.5 points.

In the latest economic data, new orders for long-lasting U.S. manufactured goods slipped in August on weak demand for motor vehicles, but a rebound in a gauge of business spending suggested the economy would avoid another recession.

In the latest quarterly earnings reports, spicemaker McCormick & Co Inc posted a profit that topped estimates, while discount chain Family Dollar Stores Inc recorded higher quarterly income.

Darden Restaurants Inc, parent of the Red Lobster and Olive Garden chains, posted a 6 percent drop in earnings.

Family Dollar shares slid 8 percent to $53.75 and Darden ticked up 2 cents to $47 in premarket trade.

(Reporting by Chuck Mikolajczak; editing by Jeffrey Benkoe)

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NEW YORK (Reuters) – Stocks slipped on Thursday after data showed continued softness in the labor market but a shrinking trade gap, ahead of a speech by U.S. President Barack Obama detailing his plan for jobs growth.

Applications for unemployment benefits rose to 414,000 in the week ended September 3 from an upwardly revised 412,000 in the prior week, the Labor Department said.

A separate report showed the trade deficit narrowed considerably in July, a positive signal for growth in the third quarter after a sluggish first half.

“The trade balance was better than expected despite worse jobless claims, so that could move up (gross domestic product) estimates, and that is why we probably didn’t go down more than what we should have on the number,” said Sam Ginzburg, head of capital markets at First New York in New York.

The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI dropped 27.81 points, or 0.24 percent, to 11,387.05. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index .SPX fell 5.46 points, or 0.46 percent, to 1,193.16. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC shed 8.18 points, or 0.32 percent, to 2,540.76.

On the heels of the jobless data and last Friday’s payrolls report showing no jobs were created in August, Obama is expected to propose tax cuts for the middle class and businesses and new spending to repair roads, bridges and other infrastructure.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will deliver a speech on the U.S. economic outlook to the Economic Club of Minnesota at 1:30 p.m. EDT (1730 GMT), but he is unlikely to outline new measures to boost the economy.

“I want to hear what Bernanke has to say, I want to hear what Obama has to say, which in turn is going to make Friday, for our market, a very interesting day,” said Ginzburg.

The European Central Bank signaled that its interest rate rise cycle had been halted, saying euro zone inflation risks were no longer skewed to the upside and economic growth would be slow at best. European stocks were little changed.

Caliper Life Sciences Inc (CALP.O) surged 41.4 percent to $10.43 after a deal to be bought by PerkinElmer Inc (PKI.N). PerkinElmer fell 3.2 percent to $21.35.

(Reporting by Chuck Mikolajczak; editing by Jeffrey Benkoe)

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Yesterday we saw Australian Business Confidence fall in April by 3 points, whilst at the same time ANZ Job Advertisement m/m decline to -1.2% for the first time since January. Retail Sales for April showed a softer reading of 0.3% instead of the 0.8% anticipated, it is no surprise that with retail sales down the number of advertisements for job vacancies declined as mentioned above. It appears that the detractors of Governor Steven’s hawkish approach to interest rate hikes may have some grounding as tighter monetary policy seems to have cooled domestic growth. Consequently we anticipate a soft number for tonight’s payrolls, and may present a short opportunity a negative number will coincide with the negative sentiment that currently surrounds the global financial recovery. A reading of 22.6k jobs created is forecast, so a significant surprise to the downside will induce AUD/USD selling as traders continue to look for opportunities to short risky assets. However, in the longer term we remain bullish AUD/USD as the interest rate differential remains wide, the economy is in good shape, and finally after yesterday’s positive prospective budget plans look set to bring their $40bn deficit to a surplus by 2012-2013 – 3 years ahead of forecast.

Published on Wed, May 12 2010, 21:23 GMT

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Due to the fiscal woes hurting the euro, a solid performance of the British currency this week is evident especially on the EURGBP. The pair managed to break another support (at 0,87) and is currently testing a long-term support created by a bottom line of a large triangle which eclipsed the pair during the past year and the half. Further support lines can be found at 0,86 and 0,84. The closest resistance on the GBPUSD is at 1,5527. While the political picture will not be clarified for (at least) another two weeks, the pound may advance further on macroeconomic figures scheduled for today (retail sales, 4.30 ET, 10.30 CET, exp 0,7% m/m) and tomorrow (flash GDP).

eBay disappoints, double-peak remains a threat

An avalanche of results in the last three days helped ease Goldman worries but didn’t drive the indices to the new highs. Reactions to reports released yesterday confirmed elevated expectations among investors. Even though reports were mostly positive, reactions were mostly negative. Morgan Stanley was a bright spot as it reported stellar earnings (1,03 USD against expected 53c) and higher revenues from trading and wealth management. On the other end was eBay which reported in-line earnings but forecasted subpar results for the second quarter – the company slid as much as 8% in aftermarket trade. Some big names, including Wells Fargo, AT&T or United Technologies reported in-line or better profits but disappointed with revenues. Today investors await results from Microsoft (expected EPS 42c), AmEx (62c) and Amazon (61c) – all after the close.

The results didn’t provide the much needed boost to drive the indices (including S&P500 and DJIA30) to the new highs and the double-peak formation still remains a worry for the bulls. Two supports can be found at 1188 (ascending short-term line) and 1180 (neck-line).

Events to watch – US macro, Microsoft, BoC report

As the earnings season has culminated, the attention is slowly switching to macroeconomic figures. The figure of the day is a report on the US initial claims (8.30 ET, 14.30 CET, consensus 452k). The number of people claiming unemployment benefits for the first time increased in the past two weeks. The market didn’t react significantly to this deterioration but investors might become concerned unless this tendency reverses. The figure is released along with the PPI report (exp at 0,4% m/m and 0,1% for core) and the figure will be followed by used home sales (10.00 ET, 16.00 CET, consensus 5,28 mln). After weak reading in January and February, the market expects a solid improvement in March. In general, expectations seem to be high so a positive surprise seems unlikely.

Today there the Bank of Canada will release a quarterly report (10.30 ET, 16.30 CET) and comment it on the conference (11.15 ET, 17.15 CET). Those events gained importance as the Bank surprised on Tuesday signaling imminent interest rates increases (read more in yesterday’s snapshot). The Canadian dollar responded with a nearly 2% gain against the US dollar.

Published on Thu, Apr 22 2010, 08:57 GMT

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In this look at the GBP/USD pair we see hourly candles for most of the past month. In today’s trading we pushed above the 1.50 level, with the pair rising to a high of 1.5112 as of 9:40AM ET.

1. The pair found support at 1.48 last week as we had risk appetite turn around as EU leaders agreed to a deal for a back-stop bailout for Greece.

2. We moved above the 50 period moving average and broke a short term downward sloping resistance trendline.

3. We had come up against resistance yesterday at the psychologically important level of 1.50 which also ran up against a second slightly longer term downward sloping resistance trendline. The Pound moved above both the downward sloping and the horizontal resistance in overnight trading until it tested its highs from March 23rd.

4. Our next level of key resistance comes at 1.52.

Fundamental Factors Behind Pound Strength

The advance in the pair started overnight as the greenback was weaker during the Asian session, but the Pound managed to extend its gains in the European session as it was support by better-than-expected data, hawkish central bank comments and widening polls.

First, from the fundamental side, 4th quarter GDP was revised higher to show the economy growing 0.4% compared to the 3rd quarter. Growth, in the preliminary release (2nd release) showed a 0.3% rise, while the advance (1st release) had a 0.1% increase. While the recovery in the UK is still fragile, the upward revision is a welcome sign. The upward revision came as output of services, construction and agriculture were revised “slightly” higher.

Here is a look at GDP growth over the past 5 years. The small growth in the 4th quarter does not come close to undoing the damage seen during the recession. With credit strains persisting and households and government seeking to repair debt-laden balance sheets, economists don’t see great signs of robust growth in the months to come. The growth that will come should emanate from exports and business investment.

See the Official Release Provided by: Office of National Statistics

In a second release, the Nationwide housing price index jumped 0.7% in March, almost wiping away the 0.8% decline seen in February. The figure was better than expected (forecasts had a 0.2% monthly rise) and housing prices are 9.0% higher than they were one year ago. While the data is good for housing prices, the housing sector saw some signs of being strained as mortgage approvals unexpectedly fell to a nine-month low in February.

See the Official Release Provided by: Nationwide

The two other factors helping Pound strength were comments made by BOE Chief Economist Dale that inflation had fallen less than expected and the latest opinion polls showed that Conservatives widened their lead over the Labour Party a little to seven percentage points.

The year-over-year consumer inflation rate hit a 14-month high of 3.5% in January, well above the Bank’s 2% target, though it did ease to 3% for the February reading. Dale is one of the more hawkish members in the Bank of England as he had opposed the Bank is expanding its asset purchase program to £200 billion in November. Dale added that he expected to 200 billion pounds of asset purchases – almost wholly gilts (or UK government bonds) – to be fully reversed in due course.

“When we start to exit one of the instruments we have available to us is selling these gilts back to the private sector. By the end of this I expect these operations to be fully reversed and for holdings of gilts by the private sector to be unaffected by these quantitative easing operations.”

Published on Tue, Mar 30 2010, 23:49 GMT

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