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Fri, Feb 5 2010, 12:32 GMT
Hope.
Global growth accelerated at the turn of the year. The strong US GDP numbers underscore this. While much of the dynamic undoubtedly came from the inventory cycle, the solid gain for final domestic demand is, however, awakening hope of self-sustaining growth!
Skepticism.
We, however, remain skeptical. Households must first deleverage, job insecurity remains high, and government transfers will likely decline in light of exploding public-sector deficits. Nor do we expect any major impulses from business investment.
Strain.
The reason for this is extremely low capacity utilization rates around the globe. Businesses can therefore ramp up production rapidly without having to expand or modernize the capital stock. And it is still no …

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